Ariel Sharon,
the disengagement plan and the Palestinians |
Published: 11 January 2005
Briefing Number 127
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Summary:
This Briefing outlines Ariel Sharon’s thinking on
disengagement and a future two-state solution with the Palestinians.
We summarise criticisms of the disengagement plan within
Israel, and by Palestinian leaders.
Among the misconceptions dispelled by this Briefing are
the following:-
- that Israel somehow wants to control the lives of the
Palestinians
- that Israel sees disengagement from Gaza as a final
step rather than as part of a process
- that disengagement marks a low-risk, token measure
by Israel, and
- that Israel prefers the excuse of not having responsible
Palestinian leaders to talk to.
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The evolution in Ariel Sharon’s views
Ariel Sharon’s attitude to Palestinian national rights
is unrecognisable from five years ago. The change has been a
source of bitterness among many of his former supporters inside
Israel. But Palestinians and many of Israel’s long-standing
critics remain hostile to Sharon’s thinking.
The evolution in Sharon’s views can be seen in his three
keynote speeches to Israel’s most prestigious national
security conference, which takes place in December each year
in the Israeli town of Herzliya. The conference is attended
by many members of Israel’s political, military, business
and media elites.
At the Herzliya conference in December 2002 Sharon confirmed
that he favoured a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict (see Briefing 32, May 2003 – Ariel Sharon: Unwilling
to Compromise?)
At the conference in December 2003 he proposed unilateral disengagement
by Israel from the Gaza Strip, including the evacuation of all
Gaza settlements, combined with withdrawal of four West Bank
settlements.
In December 2004, he restated his commitment both to disengagement
and to a two-state solution. He also challenged a post-Arafat
Palestinian leadership to end terror. Here are key points from
that speech:-
Sharon: It is impossible for Israel to rule over
another people |
Ariel Sharon: “We desire a life living
side-by-side, in understanding and peace. We have no desire
to rule over the Palestinians, we have no desire to run their
affairs… Recently, we made the historic decision that
this is our desire. I have paid a heavy personal and political
price for my leadership in this decision…”
Our comment: Many commentators routinely charge
Israel with seeking to control the lives of Palestinians. Here
the Israeli Prime Minister has stated, for the third year in
succession, that Israel’s goal is the opposite. He does
not want Israel to run Palestinian affairs.
Mr Sharon’s outlook has transformed Israeli domestic
politics. The “heavy price” he has paid includes
a loss of support in his Likud party and elsewhere on the Israeli
right. He has now formed a coalition government including the
Labour party to progress with disengagement and beyond.
Sharon: continuing the status quo would be a
“horrible disaster” |
Ariel Sharon: “A two-state vision involves
great concessions on both sides. The alternative of one nation,
where one rules over another, would be a horrible disaster for
both peoples. Only by pursuing the two-state vision can we grant
true hope to our people….
….It is clear to everyone that when Israel declares its
willingness to make painful compromises, it indeed intends to
make genuine and painful compromises. Very painful….”
Our comment: Such talk was unheard of from
Likud prime ministers of the past. Ariel Sharon does not say
what concessions he foresees long-term, but on the Israeli side
senior officials have been talking discretely about each of
the following: Israeli readiness to withdraw from most of the
West Bank as part of a final status agreement; a land swap to
“compensate” Palestinians for their ‘loss’
of West Bank territory; Israeli readiness to divide Jerusalem
pragmatically and ‘functionally’, rather than politically;
and a limited family reunification scheme for Palestinians who
are considered refugees and who have Israeli Arab family connections.
The concessions which Sharon would doubtless be looking for
from the Palestinians include renunciation of a general ‘right
of return’ for Palestinian refugees into Israel; an end
to terror against Israel, in both ideology and practice; Palestinian
willingness to accept the presence of the major Israeli settlement
blocs (which cover 10-11% of West Bank territory and are home
to around 200,000 Israelis); a limited land swap; and Palestinian
recognition of the Jewish peoples’ connection with Jerusalem.
It is often alleged that Mr Sharon is only pursuing disengagement
to maintain the status quo in the West Bank, and that he has
betrayed the Road Map. But Mr Sharon’s talk of “great
concessions” by Israel in the future shows that this is
simply wrong. He plainly does not see Gaza disengagement as
Israel’s final step, but as a preliminary measure with
tough negotiating on core issues expected in the future. This
point has been restated many times by senior Israeli officials
and ministers.
Sharon: disengagement from Gaza is the only long-term
option for Israel |
The Israeli government is committed to disengagement from the
Gaza Strip and the evacuation of 8000 Israeli residents on the
Strip, during 2005. Here is Ariel Sharon’s thinking:-
Ariel Sharon: “Disengagement from Gaza
recognises the demographic reality on the ground specifically,
bravely and honestly. It is clear to everyone that Israel will
not be in the Gaza strip in the final agreement….. Disengagement
unites the [Israeli] people because it distinguishes between
goals which deserve to be fought for, since they are truly in
our souls – such as Jerusalem, the large settlement blocs,
the security zones and maintaining Israel’s character
as a Jewish state – rather than goals where it is clear
to all of us that they will not be realised, and that most of
the public is not ready, justifiably, to sacrifice so much for…”
Our comment: Over 1,000,000 Palestinians live
in Gaza. As Ariel Sharon has made clear, Israel’s disengagement
plan is driven by that overriding demographic reality. It is
simply impossible for Israel to maintain de facto control over
such a large number of Palestinians who do not wish to live
in this way, nor protect the numerically small number of Israeli
residents of the Gaza Strip.
Disengagement was originally conceived as a unilateral project
by Israel. But following the death of Yasser Arafat and the
democratically conducted Palestinian election of 9 January 2005,
Israel may coordinate its Gaza evacuation with Palestinian leader
Mahmoud Abbas.
Israeli opponents of disengagement: their key
arguments |
Despite Sharon’s determination to press on with disengagement
in 2005, the plan has many opponents in Israel. Here are their
main arguments: